"It's at an early stage with some substantial funding question marks.
The funding would be the challenge," said Chris Drew, an analyst at RBC
Capital Markets in Sydney.
Tinkler would have to
offer a solid premium to satisfy Whitehaven's board, which just over a
year ago scrapped an auction of the company after receiving unacceptable
offers from around six suitors.
Whitehaven said
Tinkler Group's proposal was too incomplete to be considered but left
the door open to a bid, saying it has set up a committee of independent
directors to consider any further proposal.
"It'd
be an uphill task for Tinkler to take it private. He'd need plenty of
equity and backing, which is a luxury right now," said a source who has
worked on recent industry deals.
A former
electrician, Tinkler, 36, had been widely expected to sell down his 21
percent stake in Whitehaven, which in April paid about $2.7 billion for
Tinkler's Aston Resources and his exploration company Boardwalk
Resources.
However, he has instead turned his
attention to taking over the business, driven by recent share price
weakness and plans to speed up development of Whitehaven's projects, a
source with knowledge of the deal said.
Whitehaven
and a spokesman for Tinkler Group declined to elaborate on the tentative
proposal or identify who might be working with Tinkler on the bid.
Whitehaven notably has not appointed any major investment bank as a defense adviser. Last year it hired
Goldman Sachs to advise on the auction of the company.
BIG BETS
Tinkler, with a taste for fast cars, made his fortune
selling a coal tenement to Macarthur Coal in 2007 and now owns the
Newcastle Knights rugby league team and a horse racing and breeding
operation, which he picked up when the industry was hit by equine
flu.
He also rescued the Newcastle Jets Australian A-League
soccer club, tried to dump it, then held on to it after winning
concessions from another Australian billionaire, shopping mall magnate
Frank Lowy, who heads Australia's football federation.
Tinkler, who recently moved to Singapore, would need backers for the
Whitehaven bid and there is industry speculation he could seek a mix of
partners, including coal customers and investment firms. He is being
advised by Queen Street Capital, a boutique firm that he owns.
Whitehaven has an off-take agreement with
Japan's
Electric power Development Co (J-Power) , which recently bought a 10
percent stake in Whitehaven's Maules Creek project. The mine, the big
prize in Whitehaven's takeover of Aston, is also 15 percent owned by
Itochu Corp .
Other names mentioned as potential
partners in a bid are investment firms Farallon Capital and its
subsidiary Noonday Capital, which have worked with Tinkler in the past.
Whitehaven's output is expected to rise from 6 million
tonnes a year in 2012 to 25 million tonnes by 2016, when about 60
percent of output will be coking coal for steel mills.
At least half of the companies that put in bids for Whitehaven last
year are unlikely to pounce now, including U.S. coal miner
Peabody Energy , which has since taken over Macarthur Coal, and
China's Yanzhou Coal , which is now in the process of taking over Gloucester Coal .
Whitehaven's shares jumped to a high of A$4.36 after the
buyout approach was announced and closed up 4.5 percent at A$4.18,
valuing the company at A$4.2 billion ($4.2 billion).
Ahead of the approach, the stock had slumped 23 percent since the
takeover of Aston was sealed in early May. The fall is in line with
other coal miners, like Yanzhou and Peabody, amid a drop in coal prices
due to worries about soft Chinese growth.